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Explaining the Celtics-76ers trade's unique future NBA Draft pick protections

So we know the Philadelphia 76ers get Markelle Fultz (if they want him). That’s the most important takeaway of the Sixers’ trade with the Boston Celtics, which was officially confirmed Monday afternoon.

Philadelphia moved up in the 2017 NBA Draft to get the No. 1 pick, where Fultz is the obvious lead candidate. But what do the Celtics get? The easy takeaway is they get the No. 3 pick this year and a future first-rounder. But it gets complicated from there thanks to pick protections.

Here’s what the 76ers’ news release says about those protections:

The future first-round pick that Boston will receive will be the Los Angeles Lakers’ first-round pick in the 2018 NBA Draft, provided that such pick is No. 2, No. 3, No. 4, or No. 5 in the 2018 NBA Draft. If the Lakers’ 2018 first-round pick is No. 1 or is No. 6 or later, the Sixers will instead convey to the Celtics the rights to the more favorable of the Sixers’ own 2019 first-round pick or the Sacramento Kings’ 2019 first-round pick, provided that the more favorable pick is not the No. 1 pick in the 2019 NBA Draft. If the more favorable of the Sixers’ and Kings’ 2019 first-round picks is the No. 1 pick in the 2019 NBA Draft, the Sixers will instead convey the rights to the less favorable of those two picks.

Catch all that? Let’s break it down by year:

If the Celtics get the pick next year …

It’s because the Los Angeles Lakers’ pick landed between No. 2 and No. 5 in next year’s draft lottery. The 76ers keep the Lakers’ pick if it’s No. 1 or any pick after No. 6.

The path of the Lakers’ pick to the Celtics is tricky:

  • The Lakers first traded the pick to the Phoenix Suns in 2012, in the infamous Steve Nash sign-and-trade.
  • The Suns then traded in a three-team deal in February 2015. They received Brandon Knight and Kendall Marshall from the Milwaukee Bucks, who received Michael Carter-Williams from the Sixers and Tyler Ennis and Miles Plumlee from the Suns. The 76ers got the Lakers’ future pick.
  • The pick has stayed with the Lakers because it was top-five protected in 2015 and top-three protected in 2016 and 2017. Each of those years, the Lakers landed No. 2 overall.

Now the Celtics are hoping the Lakers get No. 2 overall again next year, in what is expected to be an extremely strong top of the draft. Luka Doncic, DeAndre Ayton, Michael Porter Jr. and Mohamed Bamba give next year’s draft at least four potential superstars.

If the Lakers do win the 2018 NBA Draft Lottery, the 76ers get that pick, and their obligation to the Celtics shifts back a year.

If the Celtics get the pick in 2019 …

The 76ers own the Sacramento Kings’ first-round pick, with no protections, for 2019. That came to them via the Nik Stauskas trade, one of the strangest in recent NBA history. That deal also is the reason the Sixers had the No. 3 pick in this draft — the Kings’ pick actually won the lottery slot, but Philadelphia had the right to trade picks.

Now the Celtics get to take the higher of the 76ers and Kings’ 2019 picks — unless, again, it’s No. 1 overall.

Given that the Sixers and Kings have decent young players, both franchises hope to not be at the bottom of the NBA by 2018-19. But realistically, there’s a decent chance one of the two or both still will be pretty bad by then. The 2019 NBA Draft could have arguably the two most exciting long-term NBA prospects in the world: Marvin Bagley III and Zion Williamson.

The key takeaways

Here’s the most important stuff to know:

  • No players were traded in this deal.
  • The Celtics get two picks from the 76ers total: No. 3 this year and a pick in either 2018 or 2019.
  • The Celtics only gave up the No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 NBA Draft. Nothing else.
  • The 76ers cannot lose out on a No. 1 overall pick in this trade, the way the Brooklyn Nets did this year.
  • If the Lakers, 76ers and Kings all make rapid improvements — or if the Lakers simply win next year’s lottery — this trade could look pretty bad for the Celtics when all is said and done.

The complicated pick protections used by the 76ers would make Sam Hinkie proud. The Celtics are betting on the inadequacy of at least one of those three franchises.

If I had to bet, I’d guess the Celtics will end up with the Kings’ 2019 pick. But it’s all up in the air.

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