NL ARMS Netherlands Annual Review of Military Studies 2020: Deterrence in the 21st Century—Insights from Theory and PracticeFrans Osinga, Tim Sweijs This open access volume surveys the state of the field to examine whether a fifth wave of deterrence theory is emerging. Bringing together insights from world-leading experts from three continents, the volume identifies the most pressing strategic challenges, frames theoretical concepts, and describes new strategies. The use and utility of deterrence in today’s strategic environment is a topic of paramount concern to scholars, strategists and policymakers. Ours is a period of considerable strategic turbulence, which in recent years has featured a renewed emphasis on nuclear weapons used in defence postures across different theatres; a dramatic growth in the scale of military cyber capabilities and the frequency with which these are used; and rapid technological progress including the proliferation of long-range strike and unmanned systems. These military-strategic developments occur in a polarized international system, where cooperation between leading powers on arms control regimes is breaking down, states widely make use of hybrid conflict strategies, and the number of internationalized intrastate proxy conflicts has quintupled over the past two decades. Contemporary conflict actors exploit a wider gamut of coercive instruments, which they apply across a wider range of domains. The prevalence of multi-domain coercion across but also beyond traditional dimensions of armed conflict raises an important question: what does effective deterrence look like in the 21st century? Answering that question requires a re-appraisal of key theoretical concepts and dominant strategies of Western and non-Western actors in order to assess how they hold up in today’s world. Air Commodore Professor Dr. Frans Osinga is the Chair of the War Studies Department of the Netherlands Defence Academy and the Special Chair in War Studies at the University Leiden. Dr. Tim Sweijs is the Director of Research at The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies and a Research Fellow at the Faculty of Military Sciences of the Netherlands Defence Academy in Breda. |
Contents
NATO and Russia | 29 |
4 The Continuing Relevance of Conventional Deterrence | 46 |
A Guarantee for or Threat to Strategic Stability? | 65 |
6 The US and Extended Deterrence | 87 |
7 Deterrence by Punishment or Denial? The eFP Case | 108 |
8 The Essence of CrossDomain Deterrence | 129 |
NonWestern Concepts of Deterrence | 159 |
Its Uniqueness Sources and Implications | 161 |
Russian Deterrence of Democratic Revolts | 311 |
Look Beyond the Battlefield and Expand the Number of Targets and Influence Mechanisms | 326 |
New Instruments and Domains of Deterrence | 346 |
18 Targeted Sanctions and Deterrence in the Twentyfirst Century | 347 |
19 Deterrence Resilience and the Shooting Down of Flight MH17 | 365 |
The Past Present and Future | 384 |
Artificial Intelligence and Adversarial Behaviour | 401 |
Rationality Psychology and Emotions | 418 |
10 An Overview of Chinese Thinking About Deterrence | 176 |
11 Japanese Concepts of Deterrence | 201 |
12 Deterrence Instability Between India and Pakistan | 215 |
The Evolution of Deterrence | 231 |
Deterrence of NonState Actors | 261 |
14 Deterring Violent Nonstate Actors | 263 |
The Utility and Application of Localised Deterrence in Counterinsurgency | 287 |
Game Theory Revisited | 419 |
23 Whats on the Human Mind? Decision Theory and Deterrence | 437 |
A Continuation of Emotional Life with the Admixture of Violent Means | 455 |
The Legal Framework | 475 |
Conclusion | 501 |
Insights from Theory and Practice | 503 |
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NL ARMS Netherlands Annual Review of Military Studies 2020: Deterrence in ... Frans Osinga,Tim Sweijs No preview available - 2020 |
NL ARMS Netherlands Annual Review of Military Studies 2020: Deterrence in ... Frans Osinga,Tim Sweijs No preview available - 2021 |
Common terms and phrases
ability Accessed actions activities actors adversary aggression allies application approach argue armed attack authors behaviour challenges chapter Chinese coercion Cold Commons concept considered context continue conventional costs countries credibility crisis culture cyber cyberspace decision Defence demonstrate denial deterrence deterrence theory discussion doctrine domain economic effective efforts emerging emotions escalation example forces foreign future groups important increase influence Institute interests International involved Iran Israel Journal license limited literature means measures military missile NATO nature Netherlands nuclear nuclear deterrence operations peace political possible posture potential practice present punishment References regional relations requires resilience response Review risk Russian sanctions Science Security situation space specific strategic strike Studies success suggest Syria target theory thinking threats understanding United University Press VNSAs warfare weapons Western