Dynamics of decision making: from evidence to preference and belief

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Frontiers E-books, Oct 24, 2014 - Decision making - 259 pages

 At the core of the many debates throughout cognitive science concerning how decisions are made are the processes governing the time course of preference formation and decision. From perceptual choices, such as whether the signal on a radar screen indicates an enemy missile or a spot on a CT scan indicates a tumor, to cognitive value-based decisions, such as selecting an agreeable flatmate or deciding the guilt of a defendant, significant and everyday decisions are dynamic over time. Phenomena such as decoy effects, preference reversals and order effects are still puzzling researchers. For example, in a legal context, jurors receive discrete pieces of evidence in sequence, and must integrate these pieces together to reach a singular verdict. From a standard Bayesian viewpoint the order in which people receive the evidence should not influence their final decision, and yet order effects seem a robust empirical phenomena in many decision contexts. Current research on how decisions unfold, especially in a dynamic environment, is advancing our theoretical understanding of decision making. 

This Research Topic aims to review and further explore the time course of a decision - from how prior beliefs are formed to how those beliefs are used and updated over time, towards the formation of preferences and choices and post-decision processes and effects. Research literatures encompassing varied approaches to the time-scale of decisions will be brought into scope: 

a) Speeded decisions (and post-decision processes) that require the accumulation of noisy and possibly non-stationary perceptual evidence (e.g., randomly moving dots stimuli), within a few seconds, with or without temporal uncertainty. 

b) Temporally-extended, value-based decisions that integrate feedback values (e.g., gambling machines) and internally-generated decision criteria (e.g., when one switches attention, selectively, between the various aspects of several choice alternatives). 

c) Temporally extended, belief-based decisions that build on the integration of evidence, which interacts with the decision maker's belief system, towards the updating of the beliefs and the formation of judgments and preferences (as in the legal context). 

Research that emphasizes theoretical concerns (including optimality analysis) and mechanisms underlying the decision process, both neural and cognitive, is presented, as well as research that combines experimental and computational levels of analysis.

 

Contents

from evidence accumulation to preference and belief
5
Linear deterministic accumulator models of simple choice
8
Do the dynamics of prior information depend on task context? An analysis of optimal performance and an empirical test
27
Can posterror dynamics explain sequential reaction time patterns?
42
bounded diffusion vs the leaky competing accumulator model
58
theoretical and empirical developments
75
Evidence accumulator or decision threshold which cortical mechanism are we observing?
94
EEG oscillations reveal neural correlates of evidence accumulation
108
The influence of initial beliefs on judgments of probability
145
The role of inertia in modeling decisions from experience with instancebased learning
153
the influences of data serial order data consistency and elicitation timing
165
an eyetracking analysis
181
The attentional driftdiffusion model extends to simple purchasing decisions
199
The 2Nary choice tree model for Nalternative preferential choice
217
A quantum probability model of causal reasoning
228
A canonical theory of dynamic decisionmaking
241

The nature of beliefdirected exploratory choice in human decisionmaking
121
Prediction and control in a dynamic environment
133

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