The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't"One of the more momentous books of the decade." —The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read. |
Contents
19 | |
ARE YOU SMARTER THAN A TELEVISION PUNDIT? | 47 |
ALL I CARE ABOUT IS WS AND LS | 74 |
FOR YEARS YOUVE BEEN TELLING US THAT RAIN IS GREEN | 108 |
DESPERATELY SEEKING SIGNAL | 142 |
HOW TO DROWN IN THREE FEET OF WATER | 176 |
ROLE MODELS | 204 |
LESS AND LESS AND LESS WRONG | 232 |
RAGE AGAINST THE MACHINES | 262 |
Other editions - View all
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't Nate Silver Limited preview - 2015 |
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't Nate Silver Limited preview - 2012 |
Common terms and phrases
actually American attack average baseball beat become better Blue bubble called Center chance chess claimed climate course Deep earthquake economic economists effect estimate evidence fact failed figure forecast global hand hold housing human hundred Hurricane idea increase instance investors Journal later least less look magnitude major March means measure million moves occur once percent perhaps play players poker political polls position possible prediction probably problem produce reason record relatively Report require Research risk scientists seemed September signal skill sometimes statistical temperature term terror theory things thought tion told trading turn uncertainty United University usually warming weather wrong York