India's water future to 2025-2050: business-as-usual scenario and deviationsWith a rapidly expanding economy many changes are taking place in India today. The business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, which assumes the continuation of current trends of key water demand drivers, will meet the future food demand. However, it leads to a severe regional water crisis by 2050, where many river basins will reach closure, will be physically water-scarce and will have regions with severely overexploited groundwater resources. While the alternative scenarios of water demand show both optimistic and pessimistic water futures, the scenario with additional productivity growth is the most optimistic, with significant scope for reducing future water demand. |
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agriculture Amarasinghe annually BAU scenario assumes BAU scenario projects Bm³ Brahmaputra River capita cereals consumption patterns consumptive water crop demand crop production crop yield decreasing degree of development domestic and industrial domestic water demand economic growth estimates Feed conversion ratio feed grain conversion food and water grain conversion factors grain crops grain yield gross domestic product gross irrigated area groundwater abstraction ratio groundwater irrigated area India Indo-Gangetic Plain industrial sectors industrial water demand International Water Management irrigation demand irrigation efficiencies IWMI kcal lpcd maize NGWIA non-grain crops oil crops PODIUMSIM potentially utilizable water production deficits production surpluses PUWR rain-fed yields recharge respectively return flows river basins Smakhtin Sri Lanka surface irrigation surface water irrigation tons/ha unutilizable Upali urban population utilizable water resources virtual water Water Crisis water demand drivers water demand projections water future Water Management Institute water requirement water-scarce